This led the National Bank of Canada to issue a Special Report, published on January 24, 2024, with the title “Canada is caught in a population trap.” It directly challenged then Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland’s assertions that “immigration is a huge economic strength” and that “Canada has the social capacity to welcome migrants.” It argued that “current population growth appears extreme relative to the absorptive capacity of the economy” and noted that “Nowhere is this absorption challenge more evident than in housing, where the supply deficit reached a new record of only one housing start for every 4.2 people entering the working-age population (compared to the historical average of 1.8).” The Special Report’s conclusion begins with the statement, “Canada is caught in a population trap that has historically been the preserve of emerging economies.”
While Canada was growing its way into a population trap, from 35.4 to 41.5 million, Finland’s population changed little, rising from 5.4 to 5.6 million between 2014 and 2024.
A chronology of Canada’s trajectory toward ruinous growth
Trudeau became the prime minister of Canada in October 2015 and before the year was over, his finance minister Bill Morneau announced the creation of the Advisory Council on Economic Growth. Dominic Barton was announced as its chairman in February 2016 and among its members was Mark Wiseman. Five years earlier, in 2011, Barton and Wiseman had founded the Century Initiative, whose objective was for Canada to reach a population of 100 million by 2100. At the time, Barton was Global Managing Director of the consulting company McKinsey and Company and Wiseman was with the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board.
In October 2016, the Advisory Council on Economic Growth produced its first report, recommending an increase in immigration to 450,000 annually. That same month, finance minister Morneau told young Canadians to get used to a “job churn,” where they would be jumping from “job to job to job.” Young Canadians had little likelihood of job security or benefits. Many were working multiple contract or part-time positions, with no prospects of a steady schedule or paid sick days. In other words, in a labour market that was already brutal for those entering the work force, the Advisory Council on Economic Growth advocated for substantially increasing the competition.
And the government took heed. In October 2017, then immigration minister Ahmed Hussen announced a substantial increase in Canada’s annual intake of immigrants to 300,000 with a target of 350,000 by 2021. By 2019, with 341,175 new permanent residents, things were well on track to meet Hussen’s target, but in 2020, due to Covid, the number of new permanent residents fell to 184,600. In 2021, however, the number surged to 406,055, but even that was not enough. After all, had not the Advisory Council on Economic Growth recommended 450,000 new immigrants annually? Despite the obvious negative impacts of this high immigration level on working Canadians and warnings in 2022 by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) that increases in immigration could lead to a housing crisis, in November of that year immigration minister Sean Fraser announced targets of 465,000, 485,000, and 500,000 new permanent residents for 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively. Mark Miller, who succeeded Fraser in July 2023, indicated that he had no plans to reduce the targets set by Fraser.
It should be noted that the more than 400,000 new immigrants each year from 2021 onward were only the tip of the iceberg. Those numbers refer only to new permanent residents. The government was also opening the floodgates for non-permanent residents, that is various categories of temporary foreign workers and international students. In addition, Canada was receiving and accepting an ever-increasing number of asylum seekers. As a result, the annual intake of new arrivals categorized as “non-permanent” exceeded the number of new permanent residents, and the actual number of people entering Canada in each of 2022 and 2023 was well over one million.
The Trudeau government’s obstinacy and refusal to heed warnings blew up in its face as Trudeau’s popularity plummeted along with the quality of life of many Canadians. Faced with a housing crisis, food crisis, inflation, deteriorating health services, poor job prospects for many, and general malaise, both Trudeau and immigration minister Mark Miller admitted that things had gotten out of control. In 2024, the government capped both the number of temporary workers and international students and reduced the target for permanent residents. Despite these desperate attempts to close the barn door after the multi-crisis horse had bolted, it seemed clear that Trudeau and his Liberal Party were headed to electoral defeat. Their saviour proved to be none other than US President Donald Trump. Following Trudeau’s resignation cum prorogation of Parliament for an unprecedented length on January 6, 2025, to allow for a Liberal leadership race, his successor Mark Carney was able to persuade Canadians that he was best qualified to defend their interests in the face of Trump’s tariffs despite having been Trudeau’s “informal advisor” since Covid. And so Canadians gave the Liberals a fourth term in the election of April 28, 2025.
The organizational wizard behind the curtain
Trudeau’s immigration policies appear to have followed the script of the Century Initiative, an organization that has only recently been receiving significant scrutiny despite the profound effect its objective, if implemented, would have on the country. The organization’s goal of bringing Canada’s population to 100 million by 2100 would see Canada’s big cities turned into “mega-regions.”
It is not surprising that the Advisory Committee on Economic Growth, chaired by one co-founder of the Century initiative, with the other co-founder a member, would advise the government to massively increase immigration. The Century Initiative evolved from the Laurier Project, established in 2009 by the same two co-founders, whose objective was to bring “Canada to a position of global leadership through the development and implementation of a major initiative” with the ultimate goal of developing “a roadmap for success to drive transformative impact over the long-term.” Apparently, by 2011, all endeavours for Canada to succeed had converged to maxing out Canada’s population growth.
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Canada in 2100: a country of mega-regions. From “For a bigger, bolder Canada,” p. 41
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The recklessness of the Trudeau government’s immigration policy, which is discussed in many articles on PIC’s website, aligns with the Century Initiative’s reckless promotion of population growth. At a Century Initiative webinar hosted by the Globe and Mail on April 6, 2022 (the second in a series of so far four annual webinars begun in 2021), Mark Wiseman said:
“Let the private sector move to bring people in and facilitate them being able to do that. A lot of the screening and other stuff that we do frankly is just bureaucracy, it’s a waste of time. Let’s let people in by and large and if we have to do the screening ex-post, that’s fine. I can tell you bad guys and bad women probably find their way into this country through means other than applying through permanent residency…We just need to sort of take this on as a challenge…and then partner with the private sector…Look at this anachronistic way of these labour market opinions, those who try to hire somebody from outside of the country to do a job. I mean it’s crazy. Guess what? A Canadian firm wants to hire somebody from outside the country? They’ve identified them, they’ve interviewed them, they want to pay them and that individual’s going to be paying taxes in Canada. Approved! What’s that mortgage at? Approved! We should get those guys to be running our immigration system.”
And, shockingly, the government seems to have taken that advice to heart, allowing things to get “out of control,” as both Prime Minister Trudeau and Marc Miller, who was immigration minister when the chickens of that policy came home to roost, admitted. It was also, as the stories related to me by an immigrant from the developing country “Pangea” illustrated, “an invitation to scammers.”
But beyond blatant scamming, it puts the security of our country, and that of our neighbour to the south, at risk. Is it the kind of “ex-post screening” advocated by Mark Wiseman that allowed the entry into Canada of Ahmed Fouad Mustafa Eldidi and Muhammad Shahzeb Khan? Ahmed Fouad Mustafa Eldidi became a permanent resident in 2021 and a citizen in 2024 despite the existence of an ISIS video from 2015 of him dismembering a prisoner with a sword. He was arrested along with his son Mostafa in July 2024 for planning a terrorist attack in Toronto. Muhammad Shahzeb Khan received a student visa in May 2023 and was arrested in Ormstown, Quebec, in September 2024 while on his way to New York City where he allegedly planned to conduct a mass shooting at a Jewish centre.
Should we believe a leopard that claims to have changed its spots?
While the Century Initiative had the sympathetic ear of government and few had yet heard of it, it was quite upfront about its advocacy for 100 million Canadians. For example, from the Internet Archive (or “Wayback Machine”) one can call up the Century Initiative website as it looked on February 21, 2017. At the top left of its homepage is a video advocating for 100 million Canadians by 2100. |
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But as a result of the blowback that recent hyper-immigration has provoked, the Century Initiative now denies that a population of 100 million was ever really an objective. What it really wants to do, it says, is plan for responsible population growth and start a conversation about that. And although its 2019 report “For a bigger, bolder Canada” did promote the idea of mega-regions, it now claims that report was retired in 2020 and replaced with a National Scorecard (which actually shows how Canada is failing in key areas, all while meeting the Century Initiative’s targets for population growth). Given its alleged retirement in 2020, it is strange that “For a bigger, bolder Canada” was still being promoted in a press release of December 2019 (where “develop greater density in mega-regions” was listed as one of “10 key actions”) and I was still able to find it on the Century Initiative website in 2024 and download it as a PDF. |
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Front cover of “For a bigger, bolder Canada”
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The Century Initiative now also claims that it was founded in 2014, which is actually the year that it acquired charitable status for its “educational” work. Although it also had to register as lobby group in 2021 and is still registered as such, it now claims that it is “Fiction” that it is a lobby group.
In an article published in the 2023 Summer/Fall issue of Inroads, Anne Michèle Meggs and Pierre Fortin raised a lot of concerns regarding the question, “Are we heading for 100 million Canadians?” Century Initiative’s CEO Lisa Lalande responded in a letter contesting their assertion that “unplanned massive temporary immigration is consistent with the goal of the Century Initiative” and countering that it only advocates for “responsible, planned growth…based on permanent migration.” Meggs and Fortin sent a very detailed rejoinder. The exchange can still be read online.
Apparently Lalande had not looked at the Century Initiative’s annual report for 2022 when she wrote her letter. The heading on page 4 of that 11-page report reads, “Achieving record-level immigration targets,” and contains the following statements (emphasis in original):
- In 2021, the federal government satisfied Century Initiative’s long-standing calls for more ambitious immigration targets, and for new pathways to permanent residency for essential workers and international students. This was renewed in the 2022-2024 Immigration Levels Plan; and expanded upon in the 2023-2025 Immigration Levels Plan.
- Our efforts have yielded significant results. In 2022, Canada’s population grew by more than one million people, setting a new record as the country welcomed more immigrants. For the first time, Century Initiative has assessed that Canada is on track to achieve the goal of 100 million Canadians by 2100.
It does rather sound like the Century Initiative remains focused on a target of 100 million. As for starting a conversation, apparently for the Century Initiative it means telling people not to talk about something. Which is exactly what Century Initiative board member Goldy Hyder, who is also the president and CEO of the Business Council of Canada, told politicians in April 2019, six months before the federal election. During a meeting with reporters on April 25, Hyder said, “We are 10 years away from a true demographic pressure point. What I’ve said to the leaders of the political parties on this issue is, ‘Please, please do all you can to resist making this election about immigration.’ That’s as bluntly as I can say it to them.” *
Hyder’s concerns are not misplaced. If Canadians knew what was going on with immigration, they might start asking why the government had brought in well over two million people in two years (2022 and 2023) on whom it was spending billions of dollars in assistance when the basic needs of many Canadians were not being met and essential services to Canadians were deteriorating. In 2021-22, IRCC spent “approximately $923 million in the Settlement Program to support the settlement and integration of newcomers to Canada (outside of Quebec).” Its budget for fiscal 2021-22 for all services to newcomers (including to Quebec) was $1.7 billion. In fiscal 2022-23, the federal government allocated $3.908 billion to IRCC for interim housing and resettlement programs for newcomers, interim health programs and funding for the Canada-Quebec Accord on immigration. Additional funding was allocated to legal aid.
Failing grade
A 5-page review of the Century Initiative report “For a bigger, bolder Canada” was included in the IRCC response to an ATIP request sent to me by a PIC member. The request asked for “details and supporting materials on any meetings, briefings, memos and letters to the Minister or departmental officials on relating to the Century Initiative (Canadian lobby group) from January 1, 2015 to August 4th, 2023.”
The review included the following comment: “Overall, the report does not provide a rigorous analysis to back its suggested immigration level and its target of 100 million Canadian people in 2100 as the best option for Canada. Although a long list of references is provided, it includes only works favouring their arguments.”
The review notes that a much larger number of immigrants could mean the need to reduce the selection standard for economic immigrants and accepting many more refugees. “This would likely lead to overall poor immigrant labour market outcomes” and “increase the demand for family reunification.” This “is not necessarily a gain for the Canadian economy.” The review also states that the “relatively slow growth of wages in Canada does not support a large labour shortage in Canada” as claimed by the Century Initiative. Regarding the positive correlation between population growth and economic growth, the review notes that “Past success may well be that Canada boomed its population at the right time of economic need. Furthermore, in the past, more economic growth was associated with labour force growth, and this may not be the case in the 21st century knowledge-based economy.”
This unfavourable review of the Century Initiative’s arguments aligns with the Century Initiative’s own scorecard regarding Canada’s progress. According to it, Canada is failing or falling behind in life expectancy, infrastructure, housing affordability, entrepreneurship, productivity, GDP per capita, household debt and more. These results have been consistent since the first scorecard was issued in 2021. The Century Initiative’s scorecards align with the dismal prognosis of Policy Horizons and the RCMP, as well as Canda’s downward slide on the UN’s happiness index. However, the consistently poor showings on Canada’s progress have in no way deflected the Century Initiative from the pursuit of rampant population growth.
Is Canada’s immigration policy run by a growth cartel?
There is no doubt that some are profiting handsomely from the come-one come-all immigration policy that is driving Canada’s housing crisis. Banks make profits from population growth, as do developers and speculators, and cheap labour businesses can keep wages low in a flooded labour market. It’s not surprising then, that the Century Initiative’s funders include several of Canada’s commercial banks. Most of the other foundations, organizations and individuals supporting it have obvious connections to the growth industry.
IBISWorld created a list of the ten most profitable industries in Canada in 2025. Commercial Banking, in the top spot with a profit of $152.0 billion, is almost eight times as profitable as the runner-up, Apartment Rental at $19.6 billion. In tenth place is Accounting Services, at a paltry $5.8 billion. John Meyer of Canadians for a Sustainable Society made a graph using IBISWorld data for 2024. The same two industries take first and second place, with a similar gap between them.
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One of the definitions of a cartel is “a coalition of political or special-interest groups having a common cause, as to encourage the passage of a certain law.” Or to advance a certain policy, such as ever more mass immigration, perhaps. The Century Initiative is a vehicle to accelerate the gravy train of mass immigration. Justin Trudeau, with his vision of a “postnational” Canada, allowed a nicely chugging train to become a runaway train, and the economic and social repercussions were sufficient to finally shake Canadians out of their “immigration consensus” stupor. Of course, there never really was a consensus. The corporate-owned mainstream media shamelessly promotes mass immigration and until recently, when the acute housing crisis forced the topic to the front burner, the few who dared brave accusations of “racism” or “xenophobia” to challenge this alleged “consensus” had a hard time finding a mainstream publisher, becoming “alt-right” by definition.
The Century Initiative is a lobby group, but most of the lobbied are very receptive to the message. The late Conservative prime minister Brian Mulroney was a supporter of the Century Initiative, and it is he who in 1990 initiated a policy of high annual intake of immigrants, regardless of economic conditions. It is worth pointing out that every single one of his successors, regardless of party, kept the gates wide open. Under Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper, immigration minister Jason Kenney made some structural reforms but did not apply the brakes. Senator Ratna Omidvar is a board member of the Century Initiative, and Beverly McLachlin, chief justice of Canada from 2000 to 2017, spoke at its 2021 webinar, along with Brian Mulroney. Current Prime Minister Mark Carney spoke at the Century Initiative webinar in 2024 and has appointed Mark Wiseman, one of its co-founders, to his council on advisors on Canada-US relations which was established in January by Justin Trudeau. Not surprisingly, John Meyer does not have great expectations that Carney, as prime minister, will not “hand ever more power over to a group whose interests are diametrically opposed to those of the Canadian public.”
As George Carlin said, “It’s a big club, and you ain’t in it.” Canada’s immigration policy is not about nation-building, it’s about profit-building for those who are in that big club. It does not serve working Canadians; it serves their corporate overlords and political masters. Consequently, the Century Initiative enjoys charitable status and a cozy relationship with the powerful and influential as it leads the growth parade to the grim future that Policy Horizons and the secret RCMP report foresee for working Canadians.
The question is whether those working Canadians will continue to put up with this.
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*“Don’t make election about immigration, corporate Canada tells political leaders,” by Andy Blatchford. National Newswatch, 26 April 2019. (I can no longer find this article online.) |
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Madeline Weld, Ph.D.
President, Population Institute Canada
Tel: (613) 833-3668
Email: [email protected]
www.populationinstitutecanada.ca |
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